Abstract
This study examines the transformative potential of India’s emerging bioeconomy policy architecture, with particular emphasis on the BioE3 paradigm, for achieving integrated Economy–Environment–Employment (E3) outcomes in Bihar. Adopting a mission-oriented innovation systems (MOIS) framework combined with a sustainable structural transformation (SST) approach, the analysis develops a forward-looking simulation model for the period 2025–2050. The empirical strategy integrates Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based multipliers, dynamic input–output modelling, and sector-specific projections, calibrated using recent state-level macroeconomic data at constant prices.
The results indicate that a mission-driven bioeconomy transition can significantly alter Bihar’s development trajectory. Under the Accelerated Bioeconomy Transformation (ABT) scenario, Gross State Value Added (GSVA) grows to approximately ₹34–35 lakh crore by 2050, compared to ₹23–24 lakh crore under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting an annual growth premium of 2.3–3.1 percentage points. Structural shifts are evident in the rising contribution of bio-based sectors to 18–22% of GSVA, alongside a reconfiguration toward a more balanced sectoral composition.
Employment outcomes are substantial, with an estimated 8–11 million additional jobs generated by 2050, driven by agro-industrial expansion, decentralized bioenergy systems, and service-sector spillovers. The transition also improves employment quality through increased formalization, skill intensity, and wage gains. Environmentally, the model projects a 28–35% reduction in carbon intensity relative to BAU, supported by bioenergy substitution, resource efficiency, and circular biomass utilization.
The findings underscore that such outcomes are contingent upon robust mission-oriented innovation systems, characterized by coordinated policy frameworks, strengthened R&D ecosystems, and cluster-based industrial development. The study concludes that translating macro-level bioeconomy ambitions into inclusive regional development requires context-specific strategies, institutional coherence, and sustained investment, positioning the bioeconomy as a viable pathway for sustainable and inclusive structural transformation in Bihar.
Keywords:
- Keyword: Bioeconomy; BioE3 Policy; Mission-Oriented Innovation Systems; Sustainable Structural Transformation; Bihar; Simulation Analysis
How to Cite:
Kumar Sinha, J., (2026) “ BioE3, Mission-Oriented Innovation Systems and Economy–Environment–Employment Outcomes: An Ex-Ante Assessment of Bihar's Sustainable Structural Transformation, 2025–2050 ”, Journal of Financial and Economic Dynamics (JFED) 1(2), 51-74.